INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN

All bets are off when it comes to the US Open this year, reckons Helen M Jerome. The field at Flushing Meadows is wide open.

Back in the day – or as we like to call it, a couple of years ago – we knew that Serena Williams would win or at least be a finalist in all four majors. It was just nailed on. She won a phenomenal 23 majors, and only finally retired as she turned 41.

Things have changed though, which makes the US Open on the women’s side impossible to call. There’s a new generation – or maybe two – stepping up, and this is why it’s so exciting for us as viewers, sports enthusiasts and longtime tennis lovers.

When you glance at the results this year, every major title has gone to a different player. Most recently, Wimbledon saw Iga Swiatek blitz Amanda Anisimova 6-0, 6-0, just two days after Anisimova had taken out the favourite, Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-final. And in the previous month, Sabalenka had looked unassailable throughout the French Open, yet Coco Gauff took her down against all the odds in the Roland Garros final.

Way back at the beginning of 2025, Madison Keys triumphed for the very first time in a major in the Australian Open, and yes, it was Sabalenka she beat, straight after Keys edged her semi-final against Swiatek.

Anyone can beat anyone, or so it seems, making it very different from the men’s singles where it currently feels inevitable that everyone will run around and entertain, but an Italian and a Spaniard will always meet in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka

So why are we predicting that it will, in fact, be Aryna Sabalenka who triumphs in Queens? Well, she is the defending champ, defeating Jess Pegula – and the loud home crowd – in straight sets in 2024. Her aggressive and uncompromising style suits the surface and New York City itself.

Hugely animated and emotional, she wears her heart on her sleeve, and this can endear her to viewers. But this all-or-nothing mentality can also be the chink in her armour. The occasional tendency towards self-doubt can creep in and overwhelm Sabalenka, bringing with it double-faults and wild shots. But if – and it’s a big if – she can channel her tenacity in her single-minded pursuit to retain the title, the Belarusian will surely prevail.

Coco Gauff

Amazing to think that Coco Gauff is still only 21, as she seems to have been at the top for so long. She’s always had the ability and focus, but has definitely added grit, which helped get her over the line against Sabalenka in Paris.

Once the second serve is straightened out and flies right, Gauff is close to being the total player. In Cincinnati she was indeed flying, until she came up against the phenomenal flair of Jasmine Paolini in the quarters.

Iga Swiatek

With the perfect game, six slams under her belt and an unbelievable run of 1,149 days undefeated, Iga Swiatek briefly dipped in the rankings. Much of this could be down to her disappearing at the end of 2024 after a positive test for a banned substance saw her suspended for a month and forced to miss three competitions. But she is back now, and was merciless in the Wimbledon final.

Talking to a Swiss tennis coach about Swiatek, he feels that as tennis has become much more athletic, and women’s physiques stronger, the gap between WTA and ATP players has narrowed – “with the exception of the serve”. He mainly puts this down to different anatomy, with women’s shoulders normally closer together, meaning there’s a different biomechanical operating range.

If the upper body is developed, he says, a serve can be delivered fast or faster. Though he reckons there are exceptions to the rules. “Swiatek, for instance, has a pretty fast and reliable serve, although she’s not the biggest body builder on the tour”.

Form-wise, she’s won more than she’s lost against both Gauff and Sabalenka, so has no fear in coming up against the top two. Swiatek’s kryptonite, however, is Jelena Ostapenko who she’s played six times and lost all six of them. So as long as she’s not on the same side of the draw as the Latvian, she should get to at least the semi-final.

Madison Keys

Currently just outside the top five, Madison Keys is one of those players who can go on a streak, as at the Australian Open. Injury and non-participation in the second half of 2024 saw her ranking dive to outside the top twenty, then everything changed down under at the beginning of this year, beating top seed Jess Pegula in Adelaide before taking out an incredible four top ten seeds on her way to winning in Melbourne.

Keys puts much of her recent success due to being coached by her husband, Bjorn Fratangelo, himself a former player, who she married two months before her Aussie victories. Now 30, she seems to be having a bit of an Indian summer in her career, and she knows what it’s like to be a finalist, having played one of her best friends, Sloane Stephens at the US Open eight years ago. So she might be a decent outside bet.    

Hometown Glory? Amanda Anisimova, Emma Navarro, Jess Pegula

The atmosphere at the US Open is electric – and could definitely be an advantage to US players. Spectators bring the noise, big tubs of popcorn and endless, giant soft drinks.

You also have to factor in the sweltering heat. First time I was there in person for the semi-finals, the crowd moved clockwise and en bloc throughout the day to be in the shade. Meanwhile one player collapsed and had to be taken off court in a wheelchair. It is literally intense.

So who will ride the wave of optimism the crowd brings? And who will crumble under the pressure? Every major is a challenge, and all athletes aim for peak physical fitness when they arrive. But what about the mental toughness and resilience when things aren’t going their way?

Having watched both Amanda Anisimova and Emma Navarro up close this year, you can see that their games are very different, with huge strengths taking them to numbers eight and eleven respectively in the rankings. Notably there are also big differences in their abilities to manage their own emotions and temperaments.

Maybe being able to keep on top throughout a gruelling two-week tournament is the ultimate test, with Anisimova sadly crumbling in the Wimbledon final straight after arguably her biggest career win. When I saw Navarro she was down, but not completely out.

With a gap in play, she took time at the back of the court, all by herself, to compose her nerves and go back out and grab the match with renewed determination. Very much mind over matter for Navarro. If you put both their abilities together, you would have a guaranteed slam winner. But still worth a punt on either.

Jess Pegula lost 7-5, 7-5 in the 2024 US Open final to Sabalenka and will be eager for a second chance. Currently ranked fourth in the world, she had one of her biggest wins this year by defeating Swiatek in the Bad Homburg Open final in straight sets – and also beat her compatriot Navarro en route. Should go far again this year.

Entertainers and Disruptors

Potentially the biggest disruptor as well as being an entertainer is 18-year-old Canadian, Victoria Mboko, who won her home Canadian Open tournament in style this year. And on the way to beating Naomi Osaka in the final she also downed Coco Gauff, Sofia Kenin and Elena Rybakina (after saving match point), and that is quite the run.

Could Mboko possibly emulate fellow Canadian, Bianca Andreescu, who astonished everyone by winning the US Open in 2019 out of nowhere? If it weren’t for injuries, surely Andreescu herself would be a good outside bet. Here’s hoping she recovers from the ankle injury she picked up in Montreal in time. But this year Mboko seems the more likely to make inroads in the competition.

Every tennis fan’s list of favourite players right now includes Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. And that’s a fact. A ray of sunshine on court and off, she also possesses all the shots and tenacity of the great Italians who’ve gone before her, from Adriano Panatta to Flavia Pennetta. For all of them, tennis isn’t just about winning, but putting on a show. And this attitude and ability has taken Paolini up to number nine in the WTA rankings.

Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina – one of the returning mums who now grab every moment – and Daria Kasatkina, now of Australia, are both capable of disrupting and making a long run in the tournament. Not exactly an outsider, another teenager, Mirra Andreeva is ranked at five, and could upset any of the seeds above her – or could just as easily fall at the first hurdle. Just don’t expect a handshake at the end if she plays Svitolina.

Who knows what kind of US Open Naomi Osaka will have. She’s won it a couple of times, in 2019 and 2021 – and has a couple of Australian Open titles under her belt too. One thing is for certain though, it will be entertaining to watch her. Like Sabalenka she tends to wear her heart on her sleeve. Like Svitolina she’s a returning mum. Like many athletes she has struggled with her mental health, but unlike many others, she has been very open about it. She also speaks her mind, so her on-court interviews (and press conferences) can be must-watch events in themselves. Also: that serve is a weapon. Advice: don’t sit behind the baseline if you’re courtside!

Last but not least, if they make it through the rankings and perhaps qualifiers, look out for fast rising talent like Aoi Ito (Japan), and of course Lois Boisson (France), with the latter darting around and lighting up Roland Garros, and the former charming and surprising everyone on the circuit, and even beating Paolini last month. Bring popcorn.

Verdict

It’s a marathon, not a sprint. As are all these grand slams. It might be a cliché, but you have to be made of sturdy stuff. Then you build from the experience.

As the Swiss tennis coach observes, the balance between performing and resting is becoming increasingly important. “Everyone has to find their own, personal, best way. Having a great tournament is one thing, staying up there another.”

All photos by Helen M Jerome