CAN’T CATCH ME! Is Lorena Wiebes the Surest Bet in Cycling?

Four stage wins out of five. Points jersey; second overall, and that’s only because the decisive stage finished on a steep hill – with which sprinters, no matter how versatile, famously struggle.

To say Lorena Wiebes was dominant at the Women’s Tour of Britain would be to undersell her achievements, reckons Peter Barnes.

In gambling it’s the house that always wins, when it comes to sprinting, one Dutchwoman is the house.

What really brings Lorena Wiebes’ reputation to the fore was a casual line of commentary – during Sunday’s stage of the Women’s Tour of Britain – that there was a sponsorship arrangement between SD Worx-Protime (Wiebes’ team) and Specialized, whereby for every stage of the Giro Donne that Wiebes won, Specialized would pay SD Worx a bonus.

Wiebes however was disqualified from the race due to an underweight bike. SD Worx contest that the bike was legal and therefore they’ve lost money due to the expected stage victories.

Whether or not you think this is a valid claim, it speaks volumes. In a sport as volatile as cycling, where you can crash or get a puncture, or someone near you can crash into you, or a rival team can execute their plan better or you can be out of position, she is the closest thing to a dead-cert that it’s possible to be.

The Dutch sprinter has claimed 19 victories this year, and when she hasn’t won, it’s either been on a course that doesn’t suit her, or she’s won the sprint for the ‘best of the rest’. Only once this year has she been beaten in a sprint, on a rainy day in the Ronde van Brugge where Carys Lloyd took her breakout victory.

So dominant is Wiebes that the question often turns from ‘how do we win this race?’ to ‘how do we beat Lorena?’ and the answer isn’t easy. You could let a breakaway go, hope that you have a rider in that group who can close out the victory – but that relies very much on chance and in the majority of cases SD Worx have the team to bring a breakaway back.

Often fans will spot that other teams are chasing the breakaway and deride them for it. Why help SD Worx, when Wiebes will beat you anyway?

Anyone is beatable, maybe it happens just once in a season. If you’re a rider hoping for that once-a-season event where Lorena Wiebes doesn’t win a sprint, would you rather it be for the sixth place in a group behind the winner, or would you rather it be for the victory? That’s why sometimes teams are helping SD Worx, instead of letting them do all the work and potentially giving a victory away.

Teams are gambling that their rider is the one to beat her. It’s gambling, but Lorena Wiebes is the house.

Photos: Geof Sheppard, Cs-wolves, Hoebele, Renhour48, Florian Pépellin.