FIRST SERVE! What to expect as the Australian Open starts the 2026 tennis season
The ‘Happy Slam’ aka Australian Open has a unique role within the tennis calendar. As the first Grand Slam of the year, it arrives with unanswered questions, fresh ambitions and the chance for players to immediately define their season. Including Aryna Sabalenka.
Izzy Gilligan seeks out the stories, shuffles through the seeds, and marks your cards.
Played in the unforgiving heat of a Melbourne summer, the Australian Open is also one of the most physically demanding majors, a tournament that rewards not only skill, but resilience, preparation and adaptability.
Over the years, Melbourne Park has earned a reputation as a stage for both dominance and disruption. Early rounds often expose players still finding rhythm, while the second week frequently produces defining rivalries that shape the rest of the year.
With a women’s game that continues to deepen in quality and competitiveness, the 2026 edition feels particularly open, yet at the top of it all stands a familiar figure.
Inevitable Salenka
World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka arrives in Melbourne chasing a third Australian Open title in four years, knowing that reclaiming the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup may require her to overcome some of the most formidable rivals of her generation.
Her time down under is already off to a good start. Triumph in the final at the Brisbane International last Sunday will be exactly the dominant start to the season she would have hoped for, and a brilliant setup for her stay in Victoria.
Sabalenka’s route through the draw is demanding but fitting for the reigning world No.1. The 27-year-old is projected to meet French Open foe Coco Gauff, then Iga Swiatek in succession should she reach the latter stages, a gauntlet that underlines the competitiveness of the women’s game.
Before that, her opening week could already deliver fireworks. A potential third-round clash with Emma Raducanu would see a repeat of their closely contested fight in the same round at Wimbledon in 2025. Sabalenka holds a 3-0 head-to-head advantage, but their most recent encounter in Cincinnati went the distance, offering a reminder that margins are often slim at this level.
Beyond Raducanu, Sabalenka may also need to navigate past the big-hitting 14th seed Clara Tauson and seventh seed Jasmine Paolini, a two-time major finalist whose consistency and court coverage make her a dangerous opponent on hard courts.
If Sabalenka does reach the semi-finals, she’ll be full of confidence that’s hard-earned rather than assumed.
Gauff and the next chapter of a rivalry
Awaiting in the semi-finals could be Coco Gauff, the third seed and Sabalenka’s conqueror at Roland Garros last season. Gauff arrives in Melbourne as a two-time major champion and a player who continues to mature tactically and mentally with each passing slam.
Her own quarter of the draw is far from straightforward. An enticing potential quarterfinal against 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva, the eighth seed, pits established excellence against prodigious talent. Andreeva has already made her presence felt in Melbourne in previous years and will relish the chance to test herself against one of the game’s elite. Elsewhere in Gauff’s quarter of the draw, 15th seed Emma Navarro (below, centre) also lurks.
Swiatek’s career Grand Slam pursuit
In the bottom half of the draw, Iga Swiatek begins her latest attempt to complete the career Grand Slam, with Australian Open glory still the missing piece. The World No.2’s path is arguably just as treacherous as Sabalenka’s.
A projected quarter-final against fifth seed Elena Rybakina, who arrives in Melbourne in outstanding form after going unbeaten at the WTA Finals, stands out as one of the most dangerous matchups of the tournament.
Rybakina’s serve and flat groundstrokes have already proven effective on Australian hard courts, and she has the pedigree to trouble anyone in the draw.
Should Swiatek negotiate that hurdle, a semi-final against fourth seed Amanda Anisimova (below, right) could await. The American enjoyed the best season of her career last year, reaching the finals at Wimbledon and the US Open, where she famously avenged her double-bagel London loss against Swiatek.
Anisimova’s aggressive baseline game and growing belief make her a genuine title contender rather than a dark horse.
Depth of danger among the top seeds
Elsewhere, the draw is littered with potential disruptors. Defending champion Madison Keys (above, left), seeded ninth, faces a challenging route if she is to repeat her 2025 success. A possible third-round meeting with Leylah Fernandez could test her early, while a fourth-round clash with compatriot Jessica Pegula, whom she has beaten twice in three meetings, looms as a familiar but demanding prospect.
Paolini, meanwhile, may find herself challenged by Marta Kostyuk, fresh off a remarkable run to the Brisbane final, where she defeated three top-ten players in succession. That match-up, if it materialises, could be one of the most explosive encounters of the first week.
First-round storylines to watch
The opening rounds offer their own intrigue. Andreeva’s tournament begins with a stern test against former world No.17 Donna Vekic, a player who pushed her to three sets in their only previous meeting.
Meanwhile, one of the most evocative moments of the opening day will see Venus Williams, contesting her 22nd Australian Open, take on Serbian left-hander Olga Danilovic. At 45-years-old, Williams continues to defy time, having twice reached the final in Melbourne during her storied career.
Elsewhere, Barbora Krejcikova’s return from injury sees her drawn against Diana Shnaider in a compelling clash between experience and youth, while several seeds face immediate tests that could reshape the draw before the second week even begins.
A favourite, but no guarantees
While Sabalenka enters as the favourite, the 2026 Australian Open women’s draw reflects a tour rich in depth and belief. Former champions, rising stars and players in career-best form are spread throughout the bracket, ensuring that no path to the title will be smooth.
What feels certain is that Melbourne Park will once again deliver high-stakes drama from the very first ball. Whether Sabalenka can fend off her challengers and reclaim the crown, or whether a rival seizes the moment to begin the season on top, the opening chapter of 2026 promises to be a compelling one.
